The South American timebomb - What happens to Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil?
When the product that makes up 20% of your exports is facing radical changes in the next decade, what can happen?
In my essay, A Synthetic Food Future, I describe the forces and incentives that are aligned against the current meat industry.
South America has provided meat for the world for over 100 years. Uruguayan preserved beef was crucial to the allied war effort in World War 2. Brazilian beef and chicken currently feeds the Middle East and North Africa1. China relies heavily on beef imports from Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay.
This article examines some of the social and political risks that these countries face should the meat paradigm completely change.
Uruguay
According to www.uruguayanmeats.uy, beef and lamb make up 20% of Uruguay’s exports. They estimate that around 90,000 workers are employed by the industry, which is around 2.5% of the country’s total population.
Paraguay
According to FOLUR, beef and soybeans “represent 65 percent of the country's exports and 25 percent of its gross domestic product”.
Oil is heavy, and it is expensive to ship. With new products like Zero Acre Farms “cultured oil”, the economics of producing oils from plants and then shipping it could become completely unnecessary. Apart from soybean oil, much of the soybean crop is exported to places like Argentina to be used for livestock feed.
So what happens to a country of nearly 7 million people when their main exports become severely restricted, as predicted by Tony Seba?
What happens to their workers and their families?
Argentina
Argentina is experiencing a prolonged currency crisis. Given that “agricultural commodity exports generated more than 65% of total export revenues in 2020, representing the country’s main source of foreign currency”, how will they handle the radical upcoming changes in world food production?
Argentina has also been on the receiving end of much of the intra-South American migration. Many of those migrants work in agriculture and meat processing.
The Brazilian Giant
Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter. Just the Brazilian companies JBS, Marfrig, and Minerva together make up a tremendous proportion of the beef and chicken that is consumed around the world. Cattle farming makes up 8.5% of Brazil’s GDP, and nearly 600,000 people are estimated to work in their meat sector.
The beef and agricultural industries are politically powerful in Brazil, and they played key roles in the Bolsonaro administration. After the disputed election of President Lula, truckers and farmers who supported the former President blockaded key roads and ports.
The Brazilian people have built a streamlined system of raising meat and shipping them around the world. With both of these industries being disrupted, it is certain that significant changes will come to Brazil.
Years of Crisis
My mother is from South America, and for most of my life, I have closely chased any bit of optimism I could find from the continent. While much of the “news” and “narratives” that much of the world receives about places like South America are fake or misleading, it is undeniable that South America has faced an upswing in political instability in the last 5 years.
Peru and Colombia have had monthslong protests that left dozens dead.
Bolivia had a disputed election, and the protests resulted in multiple massacres and prolonged shortages of vital supplies in its cities.
Ecuador had weeks of protests led by indigenous groups that resulted in at least 5 people dead and their President nearly being impeached.
Chile had a tumultuous attempt at making a new constitution and there were months of protests that resulted in dozens of people dead.
Argentina experienced a massive currency crisis. Brazil saw massive trucker protests and blockades that ended in large crowds storming government buildings. Hundreds of people were injured in protests in Paraguay.
So what happens when massive unemployment is added into the mix?
UN Agenda 2030
The UN SDGs have a stated principle to “Leave no one behind”.
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